A statistical look at the new Raptors lineup

Bryan Colangelos would be reverse of the above, no?

President Colangelo's would be reverse of the above, no?

Bryan Colangelo may not be done wheeling and dealing yet, but I dare say the 2009-2010 Toronto Raptors roster is basically complete (a possible 15th man-for-12th man trade won’t make a huge impact).  So, with little news expected on the horizon, let’s take a look at the new Raps from a stats-and-ratings angle:

First, the ever-popular Player Efficiency Ratings.

According to the 2009 PERs, we have no MVP candidates (25.0 and up). What we do have are

  • near-Bona Fide All Star Chris Bosh (22.1)
  • Solid Second Option Jose Calderon (18.7)
  • Pretty Good Player Hedo Turkoglu (14.8), who was previously a Third Banana (17.8 in 2008) 
  • Pretty Good Player Andrea Bargnani (14.6)
  • a trio In The Rotation, with Rasho Nesterovic (14.1) and Amir Johnson (13.5) surprisingly outranking Jarrett Jack (13.1)
  • Marco Belinelli (11.8) and Patrick O’Bryant (11.6) Scrounging For Minutes
  • in the “Definitely Renting” range, Reggie Evans (10.4), Quincy Douby (10.2), Antoine Wright (8.6) and Marcus Banks (7.8)
  • so bad there’s no category for him: Sonny Weems and his mind-boggling -3.9. Forget about Yakima — send him to the Ajax Men’s Basketball League!

It’s good to remember, though, that the PER system isn’t perfect; Jack, Evans and Wright, because of their defensive skillsets, were better than their ratings indicate. (Was Rasho, then, even better than the 14.1 he posted?)

And for this coming season, there’s hope that young guys like Bargnani, O’Bryant, Belinelli and Douby continue to improve, and DeRozan and Weems start to show their usefulness.

* * * * * * *

Next up we got Roland Ratings, “a production measure … for a player’s own stats versus the counterpart player on the other team while he is on the court, as well as a simple on court/off court plus minus.” I admit, I’m not accustomed to reading these numbers, but the Raptors’ ratings (apart from Banks’ and Weems’) compare well:

  • Bosh’s +6.0 = Nene
  • Turkoglu’s +4.7 = Deron Williams
  • Calderon’s +3.2 > Mo Williams, Raymond Felton
  • Jack’s and Johnson’s +0.1 = Allen Iverson, > Al Horford
  • Belinelli’s -2.0 > Courtney Lee
  • Douby’s -2.2 > Luke Ridnour
  • O’Bryant’s -2.7 > Tyrus Thomas
  • Bargnani’s and Nesterovic’s -3.6 = Linas Kleiza, > Matt Barnes
  • Wright’s -5.6 > Daniel Gibson
  • Evans’ -7.8 > Bruce Bowen

I’m neither happy nor surprised that Bargnani is so far down, given his early season struggles. Hopefully a good, complete year will see that rating continue to improve (-4.2 in 2008).

* * * * * * *

And there’s NBA.com’s Efficiency Ratings (EFF), whose formula is

((PTS + REB + AST + STL + BLK) – ((FGA – FGM) + (FTA – FTM) + TO)) / G

Seems to me to be even less accurate than PER, but what the hey.

  • Bosh’s 24.9 between Pau Gasol & Tim Duncan
  • Calderon’s 18.9 > Rajon Rondo & Andre Miller
  • Turkoglu’s 16.64 between Michael Redd & Corey Maggette
  • Bargnani’s 14.56 > Kendrick Perkins & Kenyon Martin
  • Jack’s 13.45 just behind Rodney Stuckey
  • Nesterovic’s 8.67 just behind Darius Songaila & Mareese Speights
  • Belinelli’s 7.62 between Tony Allen & Charlie Bell
  • Johnson’s 7.06 > Josh Boone
  • Wright’s 6.62 > Jason Kapono & Keith Bogans
  • Evans’ 5.81 between Hilton Armstrong & Jamaal Magloire
  • Douby’s 3.67 > DeMarcus Nelson & Jerryd Bayless
  • O’Bryant’s 3.38 between Austin Croshere & Stromile Swift
  • Banks’ 2.64 between Jacque Vaughn & … ha … Matt Carroll
  • Weems’ -0.08 edges Sun Yue (-0.10)

Carroll is much, much better than Banks, surely. And you Magloire-maniacs out there must be happy to see Evans’ superiority.

* * * * * * *

Who might we see in those crucial moments, in the “4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points,” when you need those clutch baskets? 82games.com says:

  • Bosh (34.2 points per 48 minutes of clutch time in 2008-2009)
  • Turkoglu (26.6)
  • Calderon (23.3)
  • Jack (22.7)
  • Bargnani (15.1)
  • Nesterovic (13.8)

Captain Obvious says: Jack goes in at the 2, and Nesterovic subs in for Bargnani in certain defensive situations.

* * * * * * *

Finally, some “did you know”-type items.

Age:

  • Johnson (age 22) is the second-youngest guy in the roster, older than DeRozan (20) and younger than Weems (23)
  • Evans is actually a year younger than Turkoglu (30)
  • Banks and Calderon are about the same age (28)

Place of birth:

  • there are five non-US-born players on the roster — Bargnani and Belinelli (Italy), Nesterovic (Slovenia), Calderon (Spain) and Turkoglu (Turkey)
  • of the ten Americans, three hail from California — DeRozan, Johnson and Wright
  • the Americans, divided among time zones –
    • Pacific (4): Banks, DeRozan, Johnson and Wright
    • Central (3): Bosh, O’Bryant, Weems
    • East (3): Douby, Jack, Evans
    • look, ma, no Mountain-timers

Height:

  • tallest – seven-footers Bargnani, Nesterovic and O’Bryant
  • shortest — Banks (6′2″)
  • undersized — Evans (6′8″ at PF, some say also C)
  • oversized — Turkoglu (6′10″ at SF)

* * * * * * *

Disclaimer: For entertainment purposes only.

Just like the ratings themselves, this post was meant to give a general idea of what the new Raptors lineup might produce, not make predictions.

Here’s all the data in one handy-dandy spreadsheet. Please let me know if I got anything wrong.

Any other insight based on these ratings? Comment below.

Posted on August 25th, 2009 by Jeff W
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7 Comments a “A statistical look at the new Raptors lineup”

  1. khandor says:

    Jeff,

    1. Solid summary.

    2. Comparing the Raptors key players with the other teams in the EC this season indicates that it is by no means a foregone conclusion the Dinos will make the playoffs. There is legitimate NBA talent on this roster but not as much as other observers might think at first glance.

    3. Basketball is a special game and the success or failure of a team depends on how the players’ [and their coach's] abilities fit together, on a consistent basis, at the crucial moments of games throughout the season [regular and, most importantly, post], when the W/L outcomes are actually decided.

    “Average game stats” rarely, if ever, paint an accurate picture of a team’s relative strength.

  2. Paul says:

    Nice work. I’d be interested in some pace adjusted figures to get an even better statistical look at what this team might have.

  3. Jeff W says:

    Thanks, Khandor and Paul.

    Khandor — I should’ve gotten you to do the disclaimer for me. ;)

    Hopefully the chemistry among players and coaches is good. Perhaps Marc Iavaroni can work magic with the D.

    Paul — Good idea. I’ll pass it along to the guys at RaptorsRepublic.

  4. Toronto Raptors Linkage for August 21st through August 26th :The AltRaps Blog says:

    [...] Pete Marasmitch – A statistical look at the new Raptors lineup – Bryan Colangelo may not be done wheeling and dealing yet, but I dare say the 2009-2010 Toronto Raptors roster is basically complete (a possible 15th man-for-12th man trade won’t make a huge impact). So, with little news expected on the horizon, let’s take a look at the new Raps from a stats-and-ratings angle:First, the ever-popular Player Efficiency Ratings. [...]

  5. Raps Fan says:

    Damn good piece man.

  6. Jeff W says:

    Thanks, Raps Fan. To be honest, I wasn’t sure it was RaptorsRepublic-worthy, or I would’ve posted there.

  7. Scott Hastie says:

    I was wondering when someone would do an article like this.

    Actually so good dude.

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